The Confidence Curve: Why Nutrition Feels So Confusing — and How to Get It Right

When it comes to nutrition, one of the most common struggles I hear isn’t a lack of motivation. It’s confusion.

There’s just so much noise. Carbs are the enemy, until they’re not...

Fasting is essential, unless you’re told six meals a day is better...

Avoid seed oils at all costs or ignore the hype entirely... Vegetables contain plant toxins, red meat causes cancer... And somehow, all of it is said with absolute confidence.

This is where it becomes difficult for anyone trying to make sense of what to eat, how to train, or how to approach long-term health goals. The public conversation around nutrition often feels less like science and more like tribal warfare. And unfortunately, that’s because much of the advice out there isn’t built on strong evidence.

In fact, nutrition is one of the few scientific fields where we see incredibly strong opinions, but relatively weak data to support many of them, especially when compared to fields like pharmacology, oncology, or cardiology. There’s rarely a single “best diet” or a clear universal answer, yet people often speak in absolutes.

This pattern of misplaced certainty maps well onto something known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect — a cognitive bias where people with limited understanding overestimate their knowledge. When we first learn about a topic, our confidence spikes — we feel like we know it. But as we learn more, we become aware of the complexity and uncertainty. That’s when confidence dips into the “Valley of Despair”, a necessary step toward actual expertise. Eventually, as true understanding builds, confidence returns — but this time with humility.

Nutrition is full of people stuck at the peak of that early confidence. But what’s needed is the patience, and honesty, to descend, question, and slowly climb with genuine understanding.

Now, to be clear: choosing a dietary approach for cultural, religious, or environmental reasons is entirely valid. These choices reflect deeply held values, and they absolutely can coexist with good health. But when people adopt a diet based purely on ideology, without understanding the biological trade-offs or whether it serves their goals, problems begin to emerge. Rigidity replaces adaptability. Identity overtakes inquiry.

And this is where the emotional cost often shows up.

Clients tell me they feel ashamed for "failing" a diet that wasn’t designed for them in the first place. Others describe feeling paralysed by conflicting advice, stuck in a cycle of trying, quitting, and second-guessing every decision. The result isn’t just physical stagnation, it’s psychological exhaustion. The burden of “doing everything right” without results can quietly erode confidence, motivation, and hope.

That’s why I believe in taking a first principles approach to nutrition and health.

Rather than chasing fads or following influencers, we ask:

• What does the body actually need?

• What are your goals?

• And is this current strategy moving you in the right direction?

It’s also why I’m not afraid to say, “I don’t know”, and I encourage others to do the same.

In science, “I don’t know” isn’t weakness. It’s the beginning of clarity. It’s the pause that makes room for better questions. And it’s a sign you’re finally stepping off the peak of false confidence, and onto the path of lasting progress.

If you’ve felt overwhelmed by nutrition, not for lack of trying, but for lack of clarity, that’s understandable. The landscape is full of noise. But there is a path through it.

It doesn’t begin with more restriction, more hacks, or more headlines.

It begins with understanding. And often, with asking better questions.

🔍 If you’re tired of second-guessing your health choices and want help cutting through the noise, that’s what I do — professionally, and with great care. Let’s work together to build a plan grounded in science and designed for you.